Monday Links
As fall workouts and conditioning continues down at Montlake and the season draws near, there are a number of issues that surround the world of Husky Basketball and the Pac-10. One is recruiting, as the top two guys on UW’s board are focusing in on their decisions. Terrence Jones was the subject of a number of internet recruiting updates, as he is now narrowing his “List”.
The Lawrenceville, KS paper, which is obviously covering the Kansas Jayhawks as their main point of focus, reported today that Jones is down to, “KU, UCLA, Washington, Florida, Kentucky and Arizona”, but in the same paragraph they give news on Josh Shelby that they attribute to Rivals. It is likely that they are getting their information from Rivals Kansas premium board.
Here is the link from them:
http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2009/sep/28/selby-cuts-list-six/?sports
Meanwhile Scout ran a premium feature today that stated that Jones’ list was seven schools which are, “Washington, Oregon, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas, UCLA and Arizona”. I believe that it is no coincidence that UW and the Ducks are the 1st two mentioned and from what we are hearing it will likely come down to those two for Terrence.
If it’s strictly a basketball decision, much the same as with Josh Smith, I believe that UW will be the better fit for Jones. The argument could be made that academics are an issue and again for both players UW would be no less of a choice and not a reason to go elsewhere.
The Scout article focuses on how his visits are going to happen, etc., but there is nothing as far as when they will be or to where. I seems that Jones wants to play the visit carousel and for that reason alone, just about anything could happen. Our sources are telling us that he is more than likely going to decide between UW and Oregon, but with all of the hoopla of a visit to schools and programs like those, a lot could happen. Jones went on to further clarify and confirm that he intends to sign in the fall.
As far as Smith’s recruiting, the big news is the visit to UCLA this weekend. Tracy Pierson at Scout again proclaims that, “It’s believed there’s a very good chance the big man could verbally commit on his visit this weekend”. The news could not be better for UW fans who would like to see the big guy follow his fellow Kentwood star Mike Jensen to Montlake, as Pierson, Hicks and subsequently their eager protégée Aaron Beach of Dawgman have been predicting a Smith commitment for what is now the 4th or 5th time, only to have it be an non-event.
That quote comes from an article that also paints Ray McCallum Jr., the highly recruited PG from Detroit MI, as having, “Developed a friendship with Smith” and being “Close friends” with fellow Michigander Trey Ziegler, whose father is a former Howland assistant.
Another article in Rivals details a fuller picture of the situation and if anything brings out the fact that there are numerous other schools in the picture for McCallum, including Arizona. It also makes clear the fact that his father (Ray Sr.), who is the coach of Detroit (Dave Bing and numerous other famous players’ alma mater), wants him to stay there for school.
Here’s the link:
Either way it is still going to be interesting to see how the big visit weekend for UCLA and Ben Howland plays itself out. They need guards very badly. Malcolm Lee is either going to reveal himself to be as good as many local folks down there, including Fox’s Jeff Goodman believes him to be and go to the NBA draft after this season or not be and leave this Bruin back court with a very disappointing season and many questions going into the following year.
Lee has already privately expressed disappointment at his decision to attend UCLA and the way that he was used as a freshman by Howland, according to anonymous sources within the UCLA family. In my opinion he is chomping at the bit to get out of there, should he have a breakout season and if he fails miserably to meet the expectations of UCLA hopefuls and others like Goodman, it will likely mean that UCLA has had a very bad year for them.
With only even lesser proven Jerime Anderson in the back court, Ben Howland is going to have a very tough time out there with only great long range shooter, but no guard himself Mike Roll and little known five-foot-eight walk-on Spencer Soo, it does not appear as if anything other than an all-world performance out of Anderson and Lee is going to get UCLA back anywhere near the top of the Pac-10.
Even the potential filled front court is devoid of a superstar, mismatch type of player in the mold of a Kevin Love, Dan Gadzuric, Bill Walton, Lou Alcindor and numerous other big men that this storied program has attracted over the years. Josh could be one of those for the powder blue and gold, but without proven guards, even if highly regarded freshmen are around, UCLA is going to still struggle.
The best case scenario for Howland is that Lee doesn’t do well enough to leave and improves along with Anderson, so that they will be the veterans and McCallum and Ziegler the young talented depth, but I would gauge the possibility of all of that happening as slim at this point. We will see how it plays out though, but one thing is for sure and that is how much stake Howland is putting into this kid from Kentwood. If Smith goes elsewhere than Westwood, regardless as to where, consider it a very big plus for Washington in their quest to win the Pac-10 over the next few years.
If Josh goes to UW, UCLA will likely go hard after Angelo Chol and Norvel Pelle in 2011, but UW right now is way ahead on those two guys list at the moment.
Another team attempting to sell themselves to Ray McCallum as a legacy destination, this time for PG’s, is Arizona. The ‘Cats are also going to have some big questions going into this year, much bigger than UCLA’s in fact. Most people that we talk to that follow the Pac-10 closely do not think that they stand a huge chance of making the tournament, unless the league is so far down that they can squeeze out a winning record and once again get in based on favorable treatment by the NCAA.
Rivals Jason King and Mike Huguenin weigh in on as to whether ‘Zona will make it into the NCAA’s or not in a piece today:
http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=993634
Huguenin thinks not and gives good reasoning to back his assertion up. He gives early season schedule which will build up the loss column too high and the loss of the two main weapons in Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger, which will likely expose Nic Wise as somewhat less than he looked to be when those two commanded so much attention from opposing teams.
Jason King points to Solomon Hill replacing Budinger (King is really off the mark here), Kyryl Natyazhko replacing Jordan Hill (not as far fetched but pretty ridiculous), Kyle Fogg and Jamelle Horne coming up big and of course his stock answer for any commentary regarding the Pac-10, “The other thing is that the Pac-10 is going to be so bad this season that Arizona, despite its youth, will be able to beat a lot of teams who are going through rebuilding phases similar to the one that’s taking place in Tucson”.
I believe that Natyazhko will show promise, but will no way replace Jordan Hill, who was a high lottery pick in June. Forget Solomon Hill, Kevin Parrom or fellow frosh Derrick Williams replacing Budinger’s production. They won’t but, the experienced core of Wise, Fogg and Horne and the quality freshmen, especially Natyazhko will make for a decent team at times, but not one that I feel will be worthy of an NCAA bid.
Fighting for 6th place with WSU is more like it and if they are able to squeeze out an NCAA bid for winning that battle, you can just about bet the house that WSU wouldn’t have gotten one had they been the ones who had done it. There has been something unfair going on with the NCAA Selection committee and ‘Zona over the last two years and a similar result would not surprise me at all.
One team that I believe will be in the mix for an NCAA bid, along with UW, Cal, UCLA and Oregon is the Oregon State Beavers. Coach Craig Robinson did a very revealing interview here today:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindbeaversbeat/2009/09/oregon_state_basketball_being.html
Robinson is understandably nervous about the Beav’s new role as a favorite and also shows himself to be very humble in this piece.
Montlake Madness once again has a very insightful interview, this time with Quincy Pondexter:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindbeaversbeat/2009/09/oregon_state_basketball_being.html
In this piece Quincy is also rather humble and shows himself to be mentally prepared to lead a very talented but at least at the beginning of this season somewhat young UW team.
Percy Allen at the Times also did a fine and rather length interview with Isaiah Thomas where Thomas shows himself to be very confident and doesn’t shy away from goals this year like the Final-Four and National Championship. He also says good things about all three freshmen, not just Abdul Gaddy.
Here’s the link:
That leads me to a thought about this year’s team. A lot is being said around Husky Basketball circles about minutes and who is going to start. I really feel that a 9 man rotation will emerge, but do not be surprised to see 11 or 12 guys get long minutes early in this season, as UW will give Scott Suggs, C.J. Wilcox (unless one of them red-shirts) and Clarence Trent a real opportunity to establish their current, rather than potential value.
I would expect the rotation to bounce between a traditional look with Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant at the post positions, Quincy at the 3rd guard or wing position and Isaiah and Gaddy at the guards and a quicker defensive pressure look with Venoy Overton and either Thomas or Abdul at guards, Holiday on the wing, Pondexter moving to the post, with either Matt or Darnell sitting.
The 8 and 9 guys in the rotation will be Elston Turner and Tyreese Breshers, Turner’s minutes coming as a back-up to Isaiah or when IT moves to the point and a third option \on the wing and Breshers minutes coming as the only big man back-up for Gant and MBA other than going small. Both guys will get a lot of minutes as teams will try to zone to slow down Abdul and Isaiah and match-ups will dictate a huge need for a player like Breshers who can take up space, bang and rebound.
I expect all 9 guys to play long minutes, but Suggs and/or Wilcox will come in as depth due to foul trouble, or possibly additional outside shooting support. Trent could establish himself in the early season as an important energy guy that has to see the floor with his defense and athleticism in the smaller high pressure look, but will more likely be used for depth. Depth will become an issue for other teams, as UW turns on the heat defensively and picks up the pace, especially for some of the bigs, so minutes for Clarence will not be that surprising.
Unlike a number of teams in the Pac-10, I think that Washington is blessed with excellent depth and that even the 10-12 guys on the roster could be major contributors, possibly even starters for some other Pac-10 teams. That’s not to say that UW will run away with the Pac-10 title, as they also are a team that must replace Jon Brockman and even the loss of Justin Dentmon points to the lack of actual experience in this awesomely talented back court and how it will resolve itself.
Isaiah does have the feel and confidence of a veteran, but it was JD who really brought home the bacon in that final stretch of the Pac-10 race last year. For this reason and that of need for outside shooting, there is no question in my mind that Elston does not see long minutes and that either Suggs or Wilcox will see the floor as well to back him up at the 2-3 spots. Some have projected Turner as a starter, with Quincy at the 4. I won’t go that far, but I will say that I think that UW fans will see a lot of him and Holiday this year.
Venoy will play starters minutes and in many games play as much as Gaddy and IT, while they will need a lot of rebounding and the “Brockman” factor from Tyreese, which will lead him to getting long minutes as well on numerous outings. Outside of those nine, I would think that the other 3 guys will get less than 10 minutes between them, but they could be more important minutes than many think going in to the season.